In this news, we discuss the Factbox: The U.S. counties Wall Street will be tracking on election night.
WASHINGTON / BOSTON (Reuters) – Faced with what could be a prolonged vote count to determine the next U.S. president, Wall Street investors have said they will closely monitor election results in some counties for an early indication the direction of the vote.
Here is a Reuters watchlist compiled after interviews with more than a dozen investors and the political analysts who advise them. They include the most pivotal counties of the most pivotal states, as well as districts that may shed light on certain demographics or national trends.
The list is not final – there are certainly other races that investors are watching, and it remains to be seen which of the counties prove to be prophetic.
MARICOPA COUNTY: The most populous county in the battlefield state, and a Republican President Donald Trump won by about 3 points in 2016. Several investors have chosen Maricopa as one to watch. The county had received 1.25 million ballots as of October 26.
BROWARD COUNTY: Strongly Democratic County in Southeast Florida, investors said Broward could point out how much enthusiasm for Democratic candidate Joe Biden is among younger and Latino voters.
DUVAL COUNTY: Seat of the city of Jacksonville, Trump captured Duval in the 2016 election by just 6,000 votes out of over 400,000 votes.
JEFFERSON COUNTY: Just east of Tallahassee, the smallest county in North Florida narrowly favored former President Barack Obama in 2008 and 2012 but switched to Trump in 2016. He is being considered again by investors. as a potential “hub” county.
MIAMI-DADE COUNTY: The giant of the Miami area, the county is the most populous in Florida. A solid Democrat in the last three elections, investors see it as an indicator of pro-Biden participation.
MONROE COUNTY: Another of Florida’s pivotal counties, the Florida Keys voted for Obama twice but switched to Trump in 2016.
PINELLAS COUNTY: The county, which includes St. Petersburg on the west central coast of Florida, narrowly passed to Trump in 2016 after favoring Obama in 2008 and 2012. Investors said the county’s older population could to be an indicator of support for Trump among the elderly.
COUNTY DE SEMINOLE: Trump won Seminole by about 1.5 points in 2016, narrower than the 6.5-point margin Republican candidate Mitt Romney had over Obama in 2012.
SUMTER COUNTY: Central Florida County, west of Orlando, features The Villages, a huge retiree community recently in the news for their pro and anti-Trump political rallies. Republicans have won the last three presidential elections there, so investors this time see Trump’s margin as a sign of support from older voters.
KENT COUNTY: Once seen as a Republican stronghold, this county is where Democrats hope to record significant gains among suburban voters, according to political experts. Trump won in Kent by a 3-point margin, down from Romney’s 7.7-point margin.
MACOMB COUNTY: The county backed Obama twice before giving Trump a double-digit victory in 2016. Four years ago, Hillary Clinton underperformed Obama by more than 9 points, and investors will be watching to see if Biden can do better.
MONROE COUNTY: The type of blue-collar county who helped Trump win Michigan in 2016, Monroe County struggled to achieve the kind of job gains it had promised as a candidate. Jobs at Munroe have fallen nearly 3% since Trump took office.
BLADEN COUNTY: The small county in Southeastern North Carolina is about a third African American. Bladen could be indicative of the state’s wider black participation, which would likely favor Biden and Cal Cunningham, the Democratic candidate in a tight Senate race with national implications. Trump toppled the county in 2016 after he went for Obama twice.
DURHAM COUNTY: The strongly democratic region of Durham is an indicator of suburban enthusiasm for Biden and Democrats, state and nationwide, investors say.
GRANVILLE COUNTY: The small north-central county is almost a third African American. Like Bladen, this might be indicative of the state’s broader black participation. Trump won the county in 2016 after it turned blue in 2008 and 2012.
MECKLENBURG COUNTY: The large Charlotte area county is solid blue and the turnout could be an indicator of the enthusiasm of Democratic voters.
TRUMBULL COUNTY: Obama won Trumbull County by 23 points in 2012. Trump won it by more than 6 points in 2016 on the back of a vow to bring back manufacturing jobs. The county has seen jobs decline 7.4% under Trump.
WOOD COUNTY: Another Ohio county that has gone from Obama to Trump, Wood is home to many Toledo suburbs where Democrats hope to gain a foothold with voters. Trump won the county by 8 points in 2016.
BUCKS COUNTY: The Democrats have won this county, just north of Philadelphia, in the last three presidential elections, but with increasingly narrow margins. The dollars could be an indicator of the national suburbs enthusiasm for Biden.
ERIA COUNTY: Northwest Lake Erie County passed to Trump in 2016 after two Obama wins. It is another pivotal country that investors will be watching.
ALZERNE COUNTY: East County, just southwest of Biden’s hometown of Scranton, swung hard towards Trump in 2016 – giving him a margin of almost 20 percentage points over Hillary Clinton – after he voted for Obama in 2008 and 2012. Like other pivotal countries, he could be a national indicator in a key state.
NORTHAMPTON COUNTY: Often referred to as a bellwether county, Trump claimed Northampton in 2016 after Obama’s 2012 victory. The county saw stronger job growth under Trump than the rest of the country, with jobs in 6.4% increase during his tenure.
HARRIS COUNTY: Harris County in Houston has been flagged as one to watch on election night, in part for how many suburban voters might shy away from Republicans. It is also the most populous county in the state.
TARRANT COUNTY: Like Harris, Tarrant is viewed as another indicator of suburban earnings by Democrats. Trump won Tarrant by 8.6 points in 2016, after a 15.7-point victory by Romney.
KENOSHA COUNTY: Obama won this double-digit county in 2012, but Trump took a 0.3 point victory here in 2016.
Sources: Dave Leip’s Election Atlas, Edison Research, Reuters Reports
Reporting by Pete Schroeder and Lawrence Delevingne, editing by Tiffany Wu
Original © Thomson Reuters
Originally posted 2020-11-02 15:46:13.