Tuesday, September 28, 2021

Here’s what Musk and Saylor’s tweets influenced crypto prices in Q2

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Elon Musk Sentiment-driven analysis from The TIE and eToro USA reveals the extent to which Musk and Saylor impacted Bitcoin (BTC) values in the second quarter. The results were presented in eToro USA’s quarterly report, titled “The True Value of Influence.”

The researchers identified three occasions where Musk’s Bitcoin-related tweets were associated with an even bigger drop in price. On May 16, his tweet on the centralization of mining was associated with a 7.6% decline in Bitcoin’s price over the next 24 hours.

On average, Musk’s Bitcoin tweets were followed by a 1.6% decline in BTC’s price over the proceeding 24 hours, the report showed. However, Musk’s Bitcoin-focused tweets positively affected investor sentiment and contributed to a 44.4% surge in BTC-related tweet volume.

Bitcoin is actually highly centralized, with supermajority controlled by handful of big mining (aka hashing) companies.

A single coal mine in Xinjiang flooded, almost killing miners, and Bitcoin hash rate dropped 35%. Sound “decentralized” to you?https://t.co/Oom8yzGRNQ

— Elon Musk (@elonmusk) May 16, 2021

His May 12 tweet regarding Bitcoin’s fossil fuel usage likely contributed to BTC falling 9.4% over the same period. Finally, on May 20, Musk’s claim that global Bitcoin mining exceeds the energy usage of some medium-sized countries preceded an 11.3% decline in the BTC price over 24 hours.

— Elon Musk (@elonmusk) May 20, 2021

Bitcoin hashing (aka mining) energy usage is starting to exceed that of medium-sized countries. Almost impossible for small hashers to succeed without those massive economies of scale.

Musk earned the scorn of the Bitcoin community when he said Tesla would no longer accept BTC payments due to environmental concerns. The Tesla CEO appeared to have walked back those comments last week when he said Bitcoin miners may have already hit his benchmark on renewable energy.

Related: SpaceX owns Bitcoin, Elon Musk and Nic Carter believe BTC is becoming greener

Michael Saylor

The tweets of MicroStrategy CEO Michael Saylor also appear to have influenced Bitcoin’s price, but in the opposite direction. As The TIE and eToro USA explain:

“he majority of his tweets came as Bitcoin’s price increased from $11k to $60k. Most present a positive perspective, ranging from announcements of MicroStrategy’s recent Bitcoin purchases or overall promoting the asset as a whole.”

On average, in the 24 hours following Saylor’s Bitcoin-focused tweets, the price increased by 4.4%, investment sentiment fell by 0.8%, and tweet volume jumped 4.1%.

#Inflation is a cancer that has been killing civilizations throughout history. #Bitcoin is the cure. https://t.co/nmj753S8fj

The MicroStrategy CEO is convinced that Bitcoin is the “apex” achievement of humanity, describing it as a “cure” for civilization-destroying inflation. Entities under his direct control have amassed more than 111,000 BTC since mid-2020.

In a recent poll, Saylor asked his 1.3 million Twitter followers how long they think Bitcoin will last. Of the more than 105,000 people who participated in the poll, nearly 38% said they believe Bitcoin would last 10,000 years.

— Michael Saylor (@michael_saylor) July 25, 2021

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