The southwest monsoon season has arrived in India’s southern half, with the first majestic downpours gracing the southernmost shores of Kerala. The India Meteorological Department (IMD) predicts that the monsoon will embrace Kerala on June 4, with a model error of ± 4 days. An official from the IMD’s regional met centre in Thiruvananthapuram has echoed this, stating that the monsoon may progress onto Kerala in the next one or two days. The IMD has been issuing operational forecasts for the monsoon onset date over Kerala since 2005, with predicted dates proven correct for 17 of the 18 years between 2005-2022.
According to a report from weather reports, the southwest monsoon season in India is set to begin soon. This is an awe-inspiring and exhilarating display of the heavens unleashing their might in a symphony of thunder, lightning and torrential downpours. The onset of the monsoon season in India is usually around June 1, starting from the southernmost shores of Kerala. However, this year, the situation is slightly different.
As per an update released by the India Meteorological Department (IMD) in mid-May, the 2023 monsoon was expected to embrace Kerala on June 4, with a model error of ± 4 days. Now, an official from the IMD’s regional met centre in Thiruvananthapuram has echoed the same. Speaking to The Weather Channel India this afternoon, the official stated: “The monsoon has advanced into some parts of south Arabian Sea, the Maldives area, some parts of the Lakshadweep area (including Minicoy) and the entire Comorin area. By my calculations, it may progress onto Kerala in the next one or two days.”
The IMD has been issuing operational forecasts for the monsoon onset date over Kerala since 2005. During this period, the predicted dates have been proven correct for 17 of the 18 years between 2005-2022, with the only exception being 2015.
As for the onset conditions, the IMD officially declares the monsoon onset when around 60% of the available weather stations in the state record rainfall of 2.5 mm or more for two consecutive days after May 10. If these conditions are met, and the technical criteria for wind field and outgoing longwave radiation are fulfilled, then the onset is usually declared on the second day.
Notably, the former criteria for widespread rains over Kerala is very likely to be fulfilled this week itself, as the IMD has predicted fairly widespread rains, thunderstorms and gusty winds across the southern state for the next five days — from Friday to next Tuesday, June 2-6. Isolated locations in Kerala are also likely to witness heavy downpours (64.5 mm-115.5 mm) from Saturday to Monday (June 3-5), the latest IMD bulletin adds.
The southwest monsoon season plays a crucial role in the Indian economy, as it accounts for nearly 70% of the country’s annual rainfall. It is the primary of irrigation for crops and also fills up the reservoirs that provide drinking water to millions of people across the country.
In the endgame, the onset of the southwest monsoon season in India is eagerly awaited every year. This year, it is expected to arrive in Kerala in the next one or two days, According to a report from the IMD. The monsoon season is crucial for the Indian economy, and it is hoped that it will bring abundant rainfall to the country. We will track the progress of the southwest monsoon over Kerala and other parts of India and keep you updated.
